Boshijijin short-term market sentiment in the rebound but the prospect of whirling – fund channel 姑娘爱情郎铃声

Boshijijin: short-term market sentiment in the rebound but the prospect of whirling – fund channel global risk sentiment in the short-term rebound, but the prospect to completely reverse this month, is expected to focus on the bottom of G20 before and after the meeting will be very whirling, and implied greater risk, the market Risk on continuous time should not be long. Push on Friday rebound risk sentiment event: the president of JPM DB, the purchase of its own shares, repurchase bonds, U.S. retail sales data better than expected, the Fed’s number three man said it was too early to negative interest rates, OPEC and non OPEC countries on the production were discussed and expected this month at the end of the G20 meeting of international coordination. However, the prospect of more whirling: 1, no one of these factors have fundamentally reversed the strength of the trend, believe that U.S. retail sales data was better than expected, but only a single month of data, and there is no response to the recent stock market turmoil on the economy, the decline in consumption is difficult to avoid. 2, the G20 meeting is only hazy expectations, no substantive expectations. 3, the main trend that drives the market is still the concern of risk aversion and the global economic recession, and of course, the latter requires further confirmation of economic data. Ideas on the G20 meeting the first point: in the global economic recovery is weak, even once again into recession, and the background of financial market turmoil hit, seeking international coordinated economic policies, to maintain the global economic recovery, should be the subject of this G20 meeting. But we see that the core of this round of financial crisis has two, one is to lose confidence in the effect of monetary policy on global central bank, the central bank is there enough stimulus to lose confidence; another is that the United States would enter into recession from relatively strong, even thriving in the recovery process of the track, re pricing then triggered the global financial assets. Therefore, if the G20 meeting can reach an agreement, it should be mainly to solve these two problems. Because of the stronger economic recovery before the United States, the appreciation of the dollar has not become the issue of special attention of the United States, but now the situation is that the U.S. economy is also crumbling, the United States to sit back and watch other countries to devalue, regardless of the very difficult. In addition, before Japan launched a large-scale QE policy, in fact, make full use of the United States is also doing QE at the same time the best opportunity, and then the United States also want other central bank QE, equivalent to improve global liquidity, also beneficial to the United states. But the current situation is that the U.S. economic data has not yet been fully weaken, especially in the labor market data is still relatively strong, so the fed to advance the use of monetary stimulus, if other countries the central bank to ease monetary policy (QE, negative interest rates), is bound to the U.S. dollar continues to appreciate, not only harm the U.S. economy, but also will hit the global economy. Therefore, the harmonization of international policy that the G20 conference can achieve should only mean that it can not compete with the devaluation of the local currency, while emphasizing that fiscal policy should be coordinated with monetary policy to boost the global economy, emphasizing the importance of structural reform. If the result is equivalent to the space that binds the BoJ to intervene in the currency and even further quantitative easing, the yen will appreciate further.

博时基金:短期市场情绪在回暖但前景扑朔迷离-基金频道   全球风险情绪短期在回暖,但前景难说彻底反转,预计围绕本月底G20会议前后还会非常扑朔迷离,并隐含更大风险,市场Risk on持续的时间应该不会长。   推动上周五风险情绪反弹的事件有:JPM的总裁购买自家股票,DB回购债券,美国零售销售数据好于预期,联储三号人物表示负利率还为时过早,OPEC和非OPEC国家可能就减产进行讨论以及预期本月底的G20会议有国际协调。然而仔细看来,前景更加扑朔迷离:   1、这些因素没有一个具备根本性扭转趋势的力量,相信美国零售数据虽好于预期,但也只是单个月的数据,且没有反应近期股市的动荡对经济的冲击,消费下滑难以避免。   2、G20会议也只是朦胧预期,没有实质性的预期。   3、推动市场运行的主趋势仍然是风险回避和全球经济衰退的担忧,当然后者需要经济数据的进一步确认。   对G20会议的两点想法   第一点:在全球经济复苏乏力,甚至可能再次进入衰退,以及金融市场风暴袭来的大背景下,寻求国际间协调一致的经济政策,力图维系全球经济复苏,应该是这次G20会议的主旨。   但我们看到,这轮金融风暴的核心有两个,一个是对全球央行的货币政策效果失去信心,对央行是否还有足够的刺激手段失去信心;另一个是美国可能从相对较强、甚至一枝独秀的复苏进程进入衰退的轨道上来,进而引发全球金融资产的重新定价。因此,G20会议若能达成一致,应该主要是解决这两个问题。   由于之前美国经济复苏更强,美元升值没有成为美国特别重视的问题,但现在情况是美国经济也摇摇欲坠,美国再坐视他国搞货币贬值而不管就很困难了。另外,之前日本推出大规模QE政策实际上是充分利用了美国也在同时做QE的绝佳时机,且当时美国也希望其他国家央行进行QE,相当于提高全球的流动性,对美国也有利。但当前情况是,美国的经济数据尚未完全走弱,特别是劳动力市场数据还比较强,因而美联储难以提前使用货币刺激政策,如果其他国家央行竞相放松货币政策(QE、负利率等),势必美元继续升值,不仅危害美国经济,而且也会打击全球经济。因此,G20会议能够实现的国际政策协调一致应该仅仅指不可以竞相本币贬值,同时强调财政政策应与货币政策协调以提振全球经济,强调结构性改革的重要。如果是这个结果,相当于束缚了日本央行进行货币干预甚至进一步量化宽松政策的空间,日元进一步升值空间将被打开。   第二点:这次G20会议在中国上海召开,作为东道主,人民币的问题势必成为另一个焦点,当然最主要的原因还不是这个,人民币贬值作为触发本轮风险资产调整的最初的风险点,将仍旧是各国关注的重点。   昨日周小川行长的访谈信息点比较多,吸引我注意的最重要点,首先是周行长把人民币贬值的原因归结为“补课”,这个定位很有艺术,一是将人民币下跌的原因推到美元升值身上。之前由于美元升值而带动人民币相对其他货币升值,因而人民币现在的贬值是之前的“补课”;二是既然是“补课”,那么人民币的下跌是有限度的;三是为本月底G20会议上讨论人民币汇率进行预热。这里面体现了央行的态度,即人民币可以贬,也应该贬,需要“补课”。另外,周行长提到“08年危机以来,全球抗击金融危机采取了宽松货币政策,很多资产上涨了很多,有一定程度的扭曲,存在调整的内在压力,处于待调整状态,最后就看是谁来触发。   调整总是痛苦的,为此无论是谁都希望找个可问责的第三方”,周行长已经说得很明白了,而且也切中要害,符合实际情况,即:需要调整的是那些之前进行量化宽松货币政策,导致资产泡沫的国家和货币,不要把责任推到人民币身上。这句话的意思意味着,G20上各国想指责人民币贬值导致全球动荡是没有根据的,因而想集体施压人民币的目的也难以实现。   日本可能面临更大的风险   推动本轮风险资产大跌的风险点可谓是多处爆发,风暴中心先是中国和人民币,再是欧洲、美国,这里特别需要提及的是日本,日本的问题可能更大。我们看到日本股市自开始实行QE一直到最高点的涨幅有将近一半在最近一两个月内跌没了,短时间这么大的跌幅势必极大打击日本投资者的信心,也势必打击日本经济。实际上NKY从高点下跌了28.6%,绝对堪称是股灾了。   造成日股如此大的跌幅的核心原因有几个:1)日本做了3轮QE,将日元贬值,将日本股市推上去,然而经济没有明显起色,市场对QE的信心丧失;2)关键是日本做QE,向市场输出了大量的流动性。BOJ带头买日本股票,因而吸引了大量的民间资金购买日本股票,同时大量日元换成美元购买海外风险资产,这个过程中积累了大量日元外汇头寸和股票风险头寸,一旦全球风险情绪转向、美元开始掉头,大量日本资金需要回国避险,从而引发日股断崖式的下跌和日元汇率的强烈升值预期。3)过去2年日元贬值带来的日本公司账面盈利不断增加,随着日元贬值效应的消退,日本公司的盈利开始下滑。而随着日元升值,将必然打击日本的企业利润,形成加速恶化的循环。因此日本的情况其实正符合周行长说的“内在调整压力”的国家和货币。   参考JP Morgan文章的数据(Global FX Strategy,JPY: Who needs to buy back Yen further? 10 February 2016),日本在过去两年购买了大量海外股票,其中2015年购买量达12万亿日元以上。2015年日本的经常账户盈余是创纪录的增幅,其中除了贸易盈余增幅9.8万亿日元,primary income项下增加了2.7万亿日元,这部分主要是海外利息收入和利润,反映了大量日元资金出海购买海外债券,而且2015年FDI的增幅也是惊人,达4.2万亿日元。按JP Morgan估计,2015年日本净汇出日元达11.8万亿日元,合1000亿美元,而2014年也是1000亿美元以上。连续两年的日元流出大部分没有汇率对冲,均面临汇率风险,因此,日元下跌既有基本面的因素(创纪录的经常账户盈余),和杠杆资金集中出逃的因素(大量日本海外资金集中回流,从而扰乱全球风险资产)。相关的主题文章: