Deutsche Bank difficult to reproduce in 1986, the United States can not escape the recession-yo te amo

Deutsche Bank: 1986 the United States escaped recession difficult to reproduce the U.S. stock market center: exclusive national industry sector stocks, premarket after hours, ETF, real-time quotes Sina warrants stocks news Beijing time on the evening of 20 Bloomberg said, corporate profit margins decline, employment market appears weak, corporate default rates rise, all these are as most of the 1986. In that year, the United States was lucky to avoid the recession. Although this year the market is basically the deterioration of these key indicators remain ignored, and speculation is leading to temporary factors, but Deutsche Bank strategists warned that not because 30 years ago would have high expectations of precedent. In 1986, a number of economic data and macro enterprise level lacklustre investor panic, the U.S. economy issued a similar decline with the current signal, but in the end the U.S. economy in inflation adjusted growth of 3.5%. Deutsche Bank’s European equity strategist who believes that bets on the U.S. next year continue to expand economic output may be unrealistic, because compared with 1986, the foundation of the U.S. economy was weak in many. They reiterated the Deutsche Bank’s view that the U.S. economy would have a 30% chance of falling into recession in the next 12 months. This probability is higher than the average of 20% analysts surveyed by Bloomberg news, even higher than other analysts expect Deutsche bank. Editor: Shuai Cong Cong

德意志银行:1986年难再现 美国逃不过衰退 美股行情中心:独家提供全美股行业板块、盘前盘后、ETF、权证实时行情   新浪美股讯 北京时间20日晚彭博称,公司利润率下降、就业市场出现疲软迹象、企业违约率上升,所有这些都像极了1986年。在那一年,美国幸运地躲过了经济衰退。   虽然今年市场基本上对这些关键指标的恶化保持无视,并且猜测只是暂时性因素导致的结果,但德意志银行的策略师们警告说,不要因为有30年前的先例就抱有太高期望。   在1986年,众多宏观和企业层面的经济数据表现黯淡,引发投资者恐慌,美国经济发出与目前类似的衰退信号,但最终美国经济在剔除通胀后增长3.5%。   德意志银行的欧洲股票策略师们认为,押注美国经济产值未来一年继续扩张或许有些不切实际,因为与1986年相比,美国经济的根基明显要疲弱很多。   他们重申了德意志银行的观点,即未来12个月美国经济有30%可能性陷入衰退。这一概率高于接受彭博新闻社调查的分析师平均预期的20%,甚至高于德意志银行其他分析师预期的可能性。 责任编辑:帅可聪相关的主题文章: